UFC Fight Night London Odds and Analysis
UFC Fight Night London Till vs Masvidal
Main Event and Co-Main Event Betting odds and analysis.
By Dale Lipan (Fistful of Cash Podcast)
Darren Till -260 vs Jorge Masvidal +200
Darren Till is looking to avoid his first losing streak after returning from a failed title bid against then-champ Tyron Woodley back in September 2018. Masvidal is looking to right his ship and end a losing streak of his own after dropping his last 2. “Gamebred” is coming back after an equally long layoff that saw him positioning on social media for fights and ultimately choosing to pursue interests on a game show in lieu of settling for a lesser opponent. The UFC has made increased efforts in the quality of its matchmaking following the ESPN deal and this fight is a sure firecracker of a matchup that is poised to leave fans with a great display of showmanship, grit, and violence.
Keys to Winning
Darren Till is one of the best fighters in the UFC but has had the unfortunate fate of meeting a prime Tyron Woodley too early in his career. Till is a perfect example of when hype writes a check that your experience cannot cash.” The Gorilla” is a pretty solid favorite to win this fight, coming in at (-260) on most books. His keys to victory are blueprint he should be familiar with, use the skills that have paved the way for him thus far. As a master of traditional and MMA adapted Muay Thai, Till would do well to use the full spectrum of the 8 limb approach and keep Masvidal at bay, using range and timing, Till should look to send his strikes downrange from various speeds and levels of power. Throwing everything at power or looking to spin and get too creative could see him get caught and hurt. He needs to avoid the brawl and not let the hype of wanting to entertain his countrymen find him on the wrong end of a Masvidal combination.
Masvidal has done well in the past when he lets volume guide his approach. If Masvidal is guilty of anything in his fighting career it's thinking that judges are all capable of understanding the work he is putting in on fight night. Sadly, for him, this has him on the wrong end of multiple split decisions. In this fight, he needs to send punches in bunches and not let the size advantage of Till influence his desire to engage. Inside leg kicks will lead to the opening of body strikes. Masvidal will have the superior cardio in this fight and would do well to look to extend it as far as possible. Investments in bodywork in the early rounds will pay dividends in the latter stages of this fight.
The best play is Till, but there is considerable value to be found on Masvidal who is very capable of winning this fight. The best value play on this fight will lay on the Over/Under on rounds at 3.5 (-115). Play the over.
Leon Edwards -155 vs Gunnar Nelson +125
1000 foot view
This is a matchup of fan-friendly fighters with outstanding finishing rates. Edwards has rattled off 6 in a row while Nelson is looking to extend a streak of his own since falling to Santiago Ponzinibbio. Both of these guys will be fighting with finishes on the mind and hometown advantage will be all be gone since Nelson has a massive following in the UK.
Keys to Victory
In a word, patience. Nelson will be looking to push the action and entrap Edwards against the cage and secure the takedown. Edwards would do well to conserve energy and focus on accuracy. In particular, when Nelson attempts to enter into takedown range. If Edwards can make Nelson pay dearly the first couple takedown attempts this will turn into a very winnable fight against an opponent that likely doesn’t have a Plan B
Gunnar Nelson is going against an opponent that may very well be his equal in all areas in Leon Edwards. Where Nelson can create a margin of error for Edwards is to remain poised under fire. Edwards is a very capable and game opponent but if Nelson can play Edwards own game against him, he should win. Nelson has a better resume and faced a collective much higher level of competition. If he can use his elongated stance to frustrate Edwards and get him to the mat, a submission win is a real possibility.
Leon Edwards by Decision. Nelson was once tapped as a future contender but that time has come and passed. Nelson now firmly entrenched in the gatekeeper position, Edwards should pass this test and move onto something that really looks a lot like a number 1 contender bout.
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